Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Tax cuts and small businesses

Chris Matthews: The tax increase is on individuals, not businesses.

Paul Ryan: Most small businesses are pass through entities, and pay tax at individual rates.

President Obama: Very few small businesses are owned by individuals with over $250K of income.

John Boehner to President Obama: Yes, but over half of all small business income will get hit by the tax increase.

WSJ: The small businesses not making any money wouldn’t be affected, but the ones succeeding out there would.

I would also like to see what percentage of small business employees work in businesses where the owner has income over $250K.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Chris Matthews is just not very smart

Congressman Ryan embarrasses the host of Hardball. Actually, Matthews embarrasses himself.



[More thoughts]

Does Matthews really not know that most small businesses are taxed at individual tax rates? And on his criticism that Republicans are not willing to offer specific cuts to the budget, does he know who he is talking to?

Some lite poolside reading

Yesterday, I was at our neighborhood pool, and there was a guy there reading Hayek's The Road to Serfdom. I only wish I had been able to take a picture.

This kind of thing is the left's worst nightmare.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Shirley Sherrod Timeline

There has been a lot of confusion regarding the timeline of Andrew Breitbart's Shirley Sherrod video and the subsequent coverage by Fox News Channel and other media outlets, so I have attempted to piece together the following timeline which I believe is correct:

Monday morning: Andrew Breitbart releases video on Biggovernment.com.

Monday afternoon: USDA Secretary Tim Vilsack issues this statement: "There is zero tolerance for discrimination at USDA, and I strongly condemn any act of discrimination against any person... We have been working hard through the past 18 months to reverse the checkered civil rights history at the department and take the issue of fairness and equality very seriously". Shirley Sherrod is driving home and is asked by a USDA official to resign because "you are going to be on Glenn Beck tonight".

Also, the NAACP releases a statement saying they are "appalled by her actions" and that her "her actions were shameful", even though only they possess the entire un-edited video.

Foxnews.com had posted a story sometime that day, but the story has still not been discussed on the Fox News Channel. According to the Los Angeles times: "At an afternoon editorial meeting Monday, [Fox News Channel Senior Vice President Michael] Clemente urged the staff to first get the facts and obtain comment from Sherrod before going on air, according to internal notes from the meeting that were provided to The Times. 'Let’s make sure we do this right,' he said."

Monday evening: Beck does not discuss the story on his 5 PM broadcast. O'Reilly plays the tape during the last 15 minutes of his show and says she should resign, a statement for which he later apologizes. Hannity covers the story, as well as Gretta Van Susteren. According to mediaite.com, "it was also referenced by a guest on Larry King Live, and Anderson Cooper did have a brief segment as well on CNN."

Tuesday morning: According to mediaite.com, all three cable networks lead with the Sherrod video. Mediaite.com also points out that "On Tuesday, FNC covered the story...39 times... MSNBC covered it 21 times, [and] CNN mentioned Shirley Sherrod 63 times."

Tuesday afternoon: Beck covers the story for the first time and defends Shirley Sherrod, suspecting that the quote was taken out of context, stating, "Now here's a possible actual example of someone taken completely out of context and they immediately get rid of her."

Wednesday: NAACP releases the entire videotape, and says they were "snookered" by Fox News, even though they released their statement before the story was discussed by anyone on the Fox News Channel. Administration apologizes for firing Sherrod.

For more on this, check out the mediaite.com story.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Food Inc

Last week I watched the critically acclaimed documentary Food Inc, and for a number of reasons, it was disappointing. The early parts of the movie were promising, particularly when it argued that the source of many of the problems in the food industry was government subsidies and an unhealthy collusion between Washington DC and the food industry. But when the movie concluded, the solutions proposed by the filmmakers ignored that problem, and instead encouraged viewers to support even greater government involvement in the food business.

But the highlight of the film for me was this quote from Gary Hirshberg, the chairman and CEO of the organic yogurt producer Stonyfield Farm. My understanding is that he is a left-wing environmental activist, but in this quote, he sounds more like Thomas Sowell or John Stossel:
The irony is that the average consumer does not feel very powerful.They think that they are the recipients of whatever industry has put there for them to consume. Trust me, it’s the exact opposite. Those businesses spend billions of dollars to tally our votes. When we run an item past the supermarket scanner, we’re voting.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Lowry and Rand Paul -- The Summit

From NRO's The Corner:
He dropped by the office yesterday. A few observations: 1) He wants to win this race and do the things necessary to make that happen; 2) He's smart and has thought through issues to a much greater extent than the average Senate candidate; 3) He clearly thinks we have no business being in Afghanistan anymore, although he's very reluctant to come out and say it. At one point he even seemed to suggest he doesn't want to give his personal view of the war out of respect for the Constitution (it's not the role of Congress to micro-manage wars); 4) There's a cockiness to him, although he seems to realize that and its potential pitfalls. He basically says he made the decision to go on the Rachel Maddow show for his infamous appearance in a fit of arrogance after his big primary win; 5) He'd be an asset to conservatives in the Senate in the fights over the size to government to come — and a major pain-in-the-neck for the Senate GOP leadership. I suspect he'll make Jim Bunning look tame.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Siding with the unions

From CNN.com:
Facing growing anti-immigrant rhetoric, the United Farm Workers union is challenging Americans to take their labor-intensive, low-paying farm jobs.

...

Through its Web site, at www.takeourjobs.org, the union promises to connect applicants with farm jobs in their area.

...

Most applicants quickly lose interest once the reality sinks in that these are back-breaking jobs in triple-digit temperatures that pay minimum wage, usually without benefits, according to the union. Some small farms are not required to pay minimum wage and in 15 states farms aren't required to offer workers' compensation. Despite the dismal job market in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is 9.5% and 14.6 million people are out of work, there have been few takers.
This reminds me of when Chris Christie said "you don't have to do it" to a teacher who was complaining about low pay. In this case, the union responds to those who have been whining about immigrants taking away jobs from Americans by saying, "if you really want these jobs, we will gladly help you find one of them".

Unions are usually about trying to limit competition in labor markets in an effort to keep wage rates artificially high. In this case, this union is doing the opposite. Good for them. From www.takeourjobs.com:
Farm workers are ready to welcome citizens and legal residents who wish to replace them in the field. We will use our knowledge and staff to help connect the unemployed with farm employers. Just fill out the form to the right and continue on to the request for job application.

Jesse emerges from his tiny car

The night that LeBron James announced he was sigining with the Miami Heat, Dan Gilbert, the jilted owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers, ripped his former star in an open letter to fans. His words were a bit unhinged, but all along the where-will-LeBron-go? saga was such a circus, all it was missing was a clown. Right on cue comes the Reverand Jesse Jackson, who had this to say about Gilbert's comments:

Jackson said Gilbert's comments were "mean, arrogant and presumptuous.''

"He speaks as an owner of LeBron and not the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers,'' the reverend said in a release from his Chicago-based civil rights group, the Rainbow PUSH Coalition. "His feelings of betrayal personify a slave master mentality. He sees LeBron as a runaway slave. This is an owner employee relationship - between business partners - and LeBron honored his contract.''

[snip]

Jackson also called Gilbert's comments an attack on all NBA players and said the owner should face a "challenge'' from the league and the players' association.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Stimulus delays the inevitable, delays the recovery

From the BostonHerald.com:
There’s a silver lining for would-be home buyers who missed the April 30 deadline for the $8,000 federal tax credit: Sellers are dropping prices.

...

“Sellers are realizing there’s no artificial stimulus to help the market, so they’re lowering prices,” said Rick Healey, broker-owner at Foster-Healey Real Estate in Fitchburg. “The demise of the tax credit has brought a sense of reality to pricing.”
This seems to be a real life showdown of Austrian economics vs. Keynesianism. The Austrians say, let prices fall, find a bottom, and yes, there will be pain, but the recovery will quickly follow. Efforts to stimulate and prop up prices just delay the inevitable. Who knows, maybe housing is about to bottom?

Coulter vs Kristol and Cheney

My first reaction to Michael Steele's comments on the Afghanistan war was that he was spot on. After all, Obama was the one who has been talking tough on Afghanistan for the last three years. And then I saw Bill Kristol and Liz Cheney attack Steele on Fox News Sunday, I thought they were going way overboard.

Ann Coulter agrees, and in this essay, calls for the "resignation" of Bill Kristol and Liz Cheney. Coulter writes:
Obama hasn't ramped up the war in Afghanistan based on a careful calculation of America's strategic objectives. He did it because he was trapped by his own rhetorical game of bashing the Iraq war while pretending to be a hawk on Afghanistan. At this point, Afghanistan is every bit as much Obama's war as Vietnam was Lyndon Johnson's war.

...

Republicans used to think seriously about deploying the military. President Eisenhower sent aid to South Vietnam, but said he could not "conceive of a greater tragedy" for America than getting heavily involved there.

As Michael Steele correctly noted, every great power that's tried to stage an all-out war in Afghanistan has gotten its ass handed to it. Everyone knows it's not worth the trouble and resources to take a nation of rocks and brigands.
And then there is this:
But now I hear it is the official policy of the Republican Party to be for all wars, irrespective of our national interest...Nonetheless, Bill Kristol and Liz Cheney have demanded that Steele resign as head of the RNC for saying Afghanistan is now Obama's war -- and a badly thought-out one at that. (Didn't liberals warn us that neoconservatives want permanent war?)

I thought the irreducible requirements of Republicanism were being for life, small government and a strong national defense, but I guess permanent war is on the platter now, too. .
I don't know what the right answer is, but I think this is a healthy discussion. By the way, Limbaugh said on Tuesday that Steele was "half right", and since I am a "dittohead" who doesn't think for myself, I agree with Rush.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Cutting edge research at Princeton

From this paper:
In an episode of the sitcom Seinfeld, Elaine Benes uses a contraceptive sponge that gets taken off the market.She scours pharmacies in the neighborhood to stock a large supply, but it is finite. So she must re-evaluate her whole screening process. Every time she dates a new man, which happens very frequently, she has to consider a new issue: Is he "spongeworthy"? The purpose of this article is to quantify this concept of spongeworthiness.
Who ever said economics is the dismal science?

Link from over at the freakonomics blog.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Statistics

Here are two headlines:
Americans want more government spending

Most Americans Not Willing To Pay Higher Taxes For Public Employees, Entitlement Programs

I think the mistake Michael Lind makes is that he references a Gallup poll survey question that says that 60 percent of Americans favor "additional government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy". The question seems to be based on the premise that government spending does in fact create jobs without any harmful side effects. But few people seem to believe that: 29% Say Stimulus Plan Helped the Economy, 43% Say It Hurt

Lowry on Rand Paul

One gets the sense that Rich Lowry disapproves of the nomination of Rand Paul.

A Problem Like Paul

The Rand Paul Effect?

A Politician Straining to be Born

Takes Some Doing

[Update]
I did an NRO search for Rich Lowry comments on Sharron Angle, the Senate nominee from Nevada, and the candidate who said "people are really looking toward those Second Amendment remedies", and found nothing.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Hayek and Mises vs. Keynes vs. Friedman

Since the financial crisis, there has been a renewed interest in the Austrian Business Cycle theory, as developed by Mises and Hayek. The theory states that a boom is created by the over expansion of credit, as facilitated by a central bank, which leads to mal-investment that can only be cured through a recession. The recession is the painful process where resources are re-allocated away from unwise projects and back toward more efficient uses. Keynesians argue that a recession is caused by a lack of demand in the private sector, and that government must pick up the slack with deficit spending and monetary stimulus. And finally, the Chicago school says that markets for the most part work, but a recession can be caused by an arbitrary reduction in the supply of money.

In explaining an early iteration of the Austrian Business Cycle theory, Mises uses an analogy of a "master builder". Below, I have modified his analogy slightly and adopted to the Keynesian and Monetarist theories. Yes, it is overly simplistic, and a professional economist might have some disagreements, but it's designed to give an idea of how these theories differ. For more, be sure to watch the Hayek/Keynes rap music video produced by Russ Roberts.

The Master Builder Analogy

Austrian Business Cycle: A builder has a collection of building materials at a local warehouse, but the builder is under the impression that he has 10% more materials then he really has, and he designs a house based on the inflated level of materials. Construction begins and at some point, he discovers that the materials will not be available to complete the project. Since a half completed house is completely useless, the house must be knocked down so that a new house can be designed based on the materials that are actually available. The longer it takes for the builder to discover the mistake, the worse the problem gets. The builder looks into what went wrong, and it turns out that the warehouse owner was intentionally manipulating warehouse records to increase his storage fee revenue, which was based on the inflated level of inventory. When the builder goes to the authorities to report the fraud, it turns out the local government planners were actually in on the scheme. They had been certifying these inflated records because they thought it would be a great way to promote more building.

Keynesian: Keynes would argue that the builder designs and starts construction on the giant house because he is overconfident. He knows that the materials are not available right now, but he is betting on the fact that the good times will continue and that he will ultimately be able to get the materials he needs, or at worst, sell the unfinished house to someone else. But once it becomes clear that he will not be able to complete the house, he becomes overly fearful, and immediately shuts down not only this project, but all of his other projects – even the ones that are almost complete and for which he has enough materials. The unfinished projects are abandoned, the workers are sent home without a job, and they stop consuming, which creates even more unemployment, and the downward spiral ensues. The only way to stop the downward spiral is for the government planners to borrow money or even print money to keep the project going, regardless of how unwise the project is. Even though the workers are working on a house that will never be completed, the government planners must do whatever it takes to make sure the workers continue to receive wages, so that they can in turn continue to spend. Eventually, confidence will return, and projects will resume and new projects will begin.

Monetarism (Chicago school): The Chicago school economists would say that the master builder designs and begins construction on a home based on what he expects to receive in regularly scheduled deliveries over the course of the project. As long as the materials are delivered at their regularly scheduled times, the project will be successfully completed. But for some reason, when he gets near completion, the deliveries stop and the builder can't finish the project. It turns out that the materials were available but the local government planners had abruptly ordered that all deliveries be suspended because they were concerned that too many houses were being built. The builder has no choice but to suspend the project, send all of the workers home unemployed and make plans to knock down the unfinished home. The planners then realize the problem they have caused, and order that deliveries resume. However, the builder is suspicious that the deliveries will stop again, so he refuses to continue the project. The planners then deliver materials at twice the normal rate, until finally the builder has accumulated more than enough materials and is finally convinced to resume the project. Once the house is complete or near completion, the planners order that the excess building materials be collected from the work site and put back in the warehouse. If they wait too long to take back the excess materials, the builder will use those materials to build more houses, which was what the planners were trying to avoid in the first place. Of course, none of this would have happened had the government planners not intervened and stopped the normal scheduled deliveries of building materials in the first place.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

I don't think he liked it.

Roger Ebert on director M. Night Shyamalan's latest film:

"The Last Airbender" is an agonizing experience in every category I can think of and others still waiting to be invented. The laws of chance suggest that something should have gone right. Not here.